Monday 19 May 2008

Inflation ...all the fault of the MPC?

According to an article in today's FT, 'the increase in consumer prices index inflation since mid-2007 can be largely explained by rising global prices for food and energy. The deeper question, however, is why these have not been offset by slower rises or falls for other products and services, as would be expected if monetary policy had been correctly calibrated to meet the inflation target.' The MPC ' allowed excessively loose monetary conditions to develop between 2005 and 2007. Bank rate was cut inappropriately in 2005 and maintained below its neutral level until 2007. During this period, investors’ risk appetites significantly increased. The result was a prolonged period of buoyant money and credit expansion.' They discussed rapid money and credit growth in 2006 and 2007 but'played down the dangers'. The upshot is that official neglect of monetary warning signals has once again been followed by 'an unexpectedly large rise in inflation although the details of the transmission mechanism differ. In effect, loose domestic monetary conditions have accommodated or even supplemented the inflationary impact of rising global costs.' It is also suggested that there is liitle scope for further interest rate cuts in the near future. Read the article.

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