Wednesday 30 April 2008

Competition Report on supermarkets

Measures designed to curb the power of major supermarkets and improve choice for consumers have been announced by the Competition Commission. Recommended changes to the planning system will make it harder for one chain to dominate a local area. And a new independent ombudsman will resolve any disputes between suppliers and retailers. But supermarkets are arguing that consumers could end up paying the cost of running the ombudsman scheme. BBC News
(Measures in detail.)
"Although, in many areas, there is good choice and strong competition between retailers, there are also a significant number of local areas where larger grocery stores face limited competition and local shoppers lose out," the Competition Commission said.

Critics of Britain's major supermarkets reacted angrily today after the Competition Commission announced new rules to curb the power of the major supermarket chains. Small retailers and environmental and consumer groups are concerned that the rules are not tough enough and will do little to curb the dominance of the large food retailers.
Supermarkets critics angry at report.

UK house prices in 1% annual fall

House prices in the UK have recorded their first annual fall for 12 years, according to the Nationwide. Prices fell by 1.1% in April, the sixth monthly decline in a row, and were down 1% from the levels seen in April 2007, the building society said. Nationwide said the price falls reflected a weakening market which had been hit by "poor affordability and tighter financial market conditions". BBC News Play the video clip of the Chief Economist of the Nationwide.
An interesting article in the Guardian (A house of cards) where Rob Williams argues that we mustn't bail out the housing market but give it time to 'self-correct'. 'What we are witnessing is a long, long overdue return to sensible borrowing and responsible lending at levels consistent with historic trends. For younger readers, or financial illiterates, that means mortgages at about 3.5 times salary, together with the necessity of saving for a deposit.'
Who will be hardest hit by a fall in house prices? Will anyone welcome falling house prices? Will views change if house prices continue to fall?

Monday 28 April 2008

OFT in new supermarket crackdown

Britain's four biggest supermarkets are under investigation by the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) for fixing prices of health, beauty and grocery products. The OFT also contacted some of their suppliers such as Unilever, Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser and Mars. News of the latest investigation came days after the OFT announced it was looking into allegations that tobacco firms and 11 retailers, including Asda, Sainsbury's and Tesco, had fixed the price of tobacco products. The banking and housebuilding sectors have also been the targets of the OFT recently. Companies found guilty of price collusion can expect fines under the Competition Act of up to 10% of turnover. Under the 2002 Enterprise Act, cartel-like behaviour may also carry a jail term of up to five years for directors or senior executives involved. The number of recent investigations has fuelled criticism from some business leaders over the watchdog's tactics, which have been described as overly aggressive since the OFT's current chief executive John Fingleton took charge at the end of 2005.

Rich List reveals wealthy reap profits under Labour

The richest 1,000 people in Britain have seen their wealth quadruple under Labour, according to The Sunday Times Rich List published today. Even under Gordon Brown’s brief premiership their fortunes have soared by 15%, just as the financial squeeze and faltering house prices have hit ordinary people.The collective wealth of the 1,000 richest has jumped to £412 billion, up from £99 billion in 1997. Total net wealth during the same period has slightly more than doubled.

Friday 25 April 2008

US to send out $100bn in rebates

The US government plans to send out cheques to consumers totalling more than $100bn (£50bn), as part of a wider economic stimulus plan, imminently. US President George W Bush said the tax rebates, aimed at some 117 million US homes, would start going out on Monday. They had been due to go out in May. Individuals will see up to $600 and married couples could see up to $1,200. The rebates are part of a $150bn plan that aims to boost growth and encourage spending, and avert a recession. BBC News
See also:

Use AD/AS analysis to show the impact the US government hopes these tax rebates will have.

Immigration: How should we react?

An interesting article by Samuel Brittan in the FT. He focuses on the current debate about immigration, making an important distinction between asylum seekers and economic migrants. Some really good analysis of the good and bad aspects of immigration in the light of the likely net immigration of 20 million people into the UK over the next half century. He ends with the view that 'If a more restrictive policy towards economic migrants were the price of a more humane treatment of asylum seekers, it would be worth paying.'

Punch hits out at 'tax on binge drinking'

An interesting article in today's Guardian questioning the effeciveness of alcohol taxes in reducing binge drinking. The chief executive of Britain's biggest pub company has attacked the recent above-inflation rise in alcohol duty, dismissing government claims that it could discourage binge drinking as "ridiculous". Giles Thorley, chief executive of Punch Taverns, warned today that the 6% rise in alcohol duty, announced in the March Budget, could even encourage excessive drinking because customers may choose to buy more cheaper alcohol from supermarkets and drink heavily at home."The pub is the home of responsible drinking. The number of restrictions that already exist as result of recent government legislation means that you are much safer drinking in the pub than anywhere else," he said.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/apr/24/punchtaverns.fooddrinks

Think about the conditions that ensure that a tax that aims to reduce consumption is successful. Why doesn't Thorley think it will be successful?

UK growth lowest for three years

Economic growth in Britain has slowed to its weakest in three years, official data showed today, as last year's interest rate increases and the credit crunch take their toll. The Office for National Statistics said the economy grew 0.4% in the first three months of the year, down from 0.6% in the final quarter of 2007.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/apr/25/gdp.growth
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7366534.stm

What will be the effects of slower growth? Is this news likely to affect the interest rate decision of the Monetary Policy Committee(MPC) when it next meets?

OFT accuses tobacco firms and retailers of cigarette price-fixing

The Office of Fair Trading (OFT) has alleged tobacco firms and supermarkets have been engaged in unlawful practices linked to retail prices for tobacco. The OFT names 11 retailers, including Asda, Sainsbury and Tesco, and tobacco firms Imperial Tobacco and Gallaher. One allegation is that retailers and tobacco groups arranged to swap information on future pricing. A separate allegation is that there was an understanding that the price of some brands would be linked to rival brands. The OFT said understandings between cigarette companies and retailers between 2000 and 2003 limited the retailers' ability "to determine its selling price independently". This is not about price fixing," an OFT spokeswoman said "This is about retail price co-ordination, which is also illegal.

Thursday 24 April 2008

Euro scales $1.60 for first time

The euro has hit a record peak against the US dollar on expectations of higher interest rates in the euro zone. It rose as high as $1.6019 as weak US housing market data underscored fears over the health of the US economy. The euro has rallied in recent months and Tuesday's peak came as European central bankers raised the prospect of higher rates to control inflation. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7361342.stm
How are interest rates and exchange rates linked? What are the likely effects of the rise in the euro? The following video clip will provide some clues.

Wednesday 23 April 2008

Big bakers push supermarkets to add 10p to price of a loaf

Bread prices could rise by 10% as the big bakery groups try to pass on the rising price of wheat to consumers. An interesting development as the large bakery groups enter into negotiations with the supermarket chains who have indicated that they will work hard to protect the postions of their customers. A good example of cost push inflation and the effect of supermarkets on the ability of producers to raise their prices.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/apr/23/supermarkets.fooddrinks

Tuesday 22 April 2008

The biggest threat to the world economy isn't the sub-prime crisis. Nor is it the credit crunch or the US recession. It's food.

Food prices are soaring. Not since the early 1970s have we seen wheat prices jump so dramatically. Rice prices have also spiked upwards. For the rich developed countries, the rise in food prices is, so far, not much more than a minor inconvenience. For other nations, though, the recent gains in food prices threaten severe economic and social distress. Rice, after all, is the staple food for half of the world's population. What should they do if prices suddenly go through the roof? This is a really good analysis, by Stephen King, of the demand, supply and policy factors behind this dramatic rise in world food prices and its potential impact.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/stephen-king/stephen-king-food-protectionism-could-provoke-a-crisis-on-a-par-with-1970s-oil-shocks-812753.html

Employers face shortage of skilled trades people

While the world pursues the knowledge economy, employers are increasingly desperate for plumbers, welders and other technical staff, U.S. employment services firm Manpower Inc said on Tuesday, in its annual survey of staff shortages. The survey of nearly 43,000 employers in 32 countries found the rising lament almost everywhere was for trades people and similar skilled, but not necessarily highly educated, positions. While Europe has fretted about the eastward expansion of the European Union and the potential for a flood of Polish plumbers and the like heading west, the survey found most Western European nations had the most acute shortages in such traditional crafts.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUST30198120080421

A2 Economists - Check this out alongside GeoffvRiley's excellent revision focus on 'Labour Market Failure'.

BAA 'acting against the interests of passengers and airlines'.

BAA's ownership of seven UK airports "may not be serving well the interests of either airlines or passengers", the Competition Commission has said. The commission's "emerging thinking" report said that BAA, "dominates the airports markets in the south-east of England and in lowland Scotland". The Competition Commission stressed that it had not yet reached any conclusions but added that it would set out its remedies to any competition problems in August, "whether requiring the sale of one or more of BAA's airports or otherwise".
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7360046.stm

Think about how the monopoly position of BAA could impact on both passengers and the airlines. Are there any advantages to having one operator in control of all the airports? How could more competition be created? Would such competition address the criticsims?

Monday 21 April 2008

Price fixing in the construction industry

More than a hundred British construction companies are facing the threat of heavy fines after the Office of Fair Trading accused them of rigging bids. In one of the competition watchdog's biggest investigations, the OFT probed thousands of tenders for construction work worth some £3bn covering schools, hospitals and private-sector developments, before focusing on 240 alleged infringements involving 112 companies.
John Fingleton, OFT chief executive, said: "Cartel activity of the type alleged today harms the economy by distorting competition and keeping price artificially high. This investigation ... will hopefully send a strong message to the construction industry about the seriousness with which we view suspected anti-competitive behaviour. Businesses have no excuse for not knowing and abiding by the law."


Friday 18 April 2008

How important is information?

Two stories this week drew attention to the role of information and the efficient operation of markets.

Tesco is to test putting "carbon labels" on its own-brand products next month in a move to enable consumers to choose products which are less damaging to the environment.The retailer will put carbon-count labels on varieties of orange juice, potatoes, energy-efficient light bulbs and washing detergent, stating the quantity in grammes of CO2 equivalent put into the atmosphere by their manufacture and distribution.




Vitamin supplements taken by millions of people do not increase life expectancy and may raise the risk of a premature death , according to a review of 67 studies with more than 230,000 subjects. lage numbers of people take such supplemets in the belief that they are beneficial for their health.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2008/apr/17/health.healthandwellbeing

The rising price of bread


The price of bread is the highest it has ever been. It's all down to the rising cost of wheat, which has doubled in the past year alone. What is going on? A good analysis of the complex pressures across the world that are affecting the bread market.


Do you think prices are likely to go higher? How could consumers respond? How price elastic is the demand for bread? What type of good is bread?

Retail sales fall for first time in two years

Hopes that Britain can weather the worldwide credit crunch were dampened as data showed the first fall in retail sales for more than two years. The signs of a slowdown in high-street spending followed figures yesterday showing factory-gate inflation at a 17-year high, raising the spectre of slowing growth and rising prices. Amid growing concern in Downing Street about falling house prices and the credit crunch, the gloomy picture of the retail sector emerged today from the British Retail Consortium. The BRC said like-for-like sales, which exclude the effects of new floor space, fell 1.6% in the year to March, compared with March 2007, when sales rose 3.9%. It was the biggest fall since July 2005, when shops were affected by bad weather.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/apr/15/retail.creditcrunch

Rising prices? Falling sales? Does this herald a return to the stagflation we last saw in the 1970s?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/apr/15/economics.retail

House prices fall at fastest rate since 1978


House prices are falling at their fastest rate since records began 30 years ago as the mortgage lending freeze continues to undermine the housing market, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says. The latest monthly snapshot of the housing market shows that 78.5% more surveyors reported a fall than a rise in house prices. The gulf has widened since February and easily eclipses the previous low of 64.5% in June 1990, when the economy was heading into recession. House prices are falling fastest in the east Midlands and East Anglia, according to an increasingly gloomy assessment of the property market by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. Few parts of the UK remain untouched by the slump as surveyors reported that prices declined at a faster pace than in the previous month across all regions in England and Wales, except for Yorkshire and Humberside, where the rate remained unchanged having fallen the most in February.
Try The Guardian's interactive guide to house prices.

Think about the reasons behind the fall in prices. Is the market likely to recover in the short term? Analyse the effect of falling house prices in individuals and the economy as a whole.

Emissions - 'rich states failling to lead'

Developing countries, including China and India, are unwilling to sign up to a new global climate change pact to replace the Kyoto protocol in 2012 because the rich world has failed to set a clear example on cutting carbon emissions, according to the UN's top climate official. Analysts say a new global deal needs to be agreed at the Copenhagen meeting for it to come into force by 2012, because it will take several years to be ratified by countries. If a new deal is not in place when Kyoto expires, then confidence in emerging carbon trading markets - seen as a key way to reduce greenhouse gas pollution - could collapse. Schemes such as the European emissions trading scheme, set up under Kyoto, force polluting companies to invest in carbon credits or cleaner technology, but rely on carbon caps continuing past 2012.

Thursday 10 April 2008

Housing downturn hits Ikea


A good example of the inter-relationship between markets and complementary goods in this article about Ikea, the Swedish furniture manufacturer. The housing downturn is important for our business and we feel it quite a lot," Anders Dahlvig, the chief executive, said at the World Retail Congress in Barcelona. "Our growth is going down slightly in the US, the UK and Germany. The downturn is affecting us quite a lot."


World Bank: rocketing food prices have put fight against poverty back 7 years

The World Bank attempts to put concerns about the credit crunch and falling house prices into some sort of perspective with a report about the difficulties faced by those in the devloping world caused by the steep increase in food prices. The price of wheat has risen by 120% in the past year, more than doubling the cost of a loaf of bread. Rice prices were up by 75%. The Bank's analysis chimes with research from the International Monetary Fund showing that Africa will be the hardest hit continent from rising food prices. More than 20 African countries will see their trade balance worsen by more than 1% of GDP as a result of having to pay more for food.
See Geoff Riley's Chart of the Day:

IMF: global economy caught between slowdown and inflation

A number of articles in The Guardian reporting the views of the IMF about the prospects for the global economy, caught between the twin perils of a sharp slowdown in activity and rising inflation.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/apr/10/globaleconomy.globalrecession
The US mortgage crisis has spiralled into "the largest financial shock since the Great Depression" and there is a one-in-four chance that it will cause a full-blown global recession.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/apr/10/useconomy.subprimecrisis
Graphic: Global Economic Outlook for 2009
http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Guardian/documents/2008/04/09/GlobalEconomy.pdf

Pound continues to fall against Euro


The pound has touched another all-time low against the euro, driven by the Bank of England cutting UK interest rates as had been widely expected. One pound was worth as little as 1.2457 euros in Thursday trading though sterling later strengthened slightly, to be worth 1.2537.
The Bank trimming rates to 5% had already been priced in, analysts said. Interest rate cuts generally encourage investors to switch to other currencies which have a higher rate of return. While the pound went below 1.2500 euros, the European single currency touched as high as 80.3 pence.

Is this good for the economy? What impact will it have on those who are contemplating booking a European holiday this summer?

Wednesday 9 April 2008

How effective are regulators?

A good article in The Guardian about the decision by Ofwat to fine Severn Trent £35.8million. Britain's second-largest water company is to be fined for supplying false data to the regulator and providing poor customer service.
There are also links into articles about the activities of some of the other regulators and a piece considering the effectiveness of the regulation process. (See below)

Regulators: Performance rating
Fair play in a free market? The public takes a sceptical view.

'Industry watchdogs have been baring their teeth in recent weeks with highprofile fines and investigations. But consumer groups remain sceptical about how well they ensure fair play
in a free market that produces high levels of corporate profi ts as well as complaints. Ofgem, the energy watchdog, has been busier than most and yesterday announced an inquiry into the activities of ScottishPower and Scottish & Southern Energy. This follows a formal complaint alleging anti-competitive behaviour relating to the electricity transmission network they own jointly in Scotland. The water regulator, Ofwat, hasslapped a £35.8m fi ne on Severn Trent for providing false data as well as poor customer service. The penalty will be levied on top of what may be imposed by a criminal court under a case brought by the Financial Services Authority over the false data.
Those moves come weeks after Ofgem imposed a £41.6m fine — the highest ever in the energy sector — on National Grid for restrictive contracts that held back developments. The regulator also launched two investigations into the way markets have been operating. But some consumers have been sceptical about whether these headline-grabbing initiatives add up to much. Regulators have denied persistent allegations that they act only when pressed by rival utility firms, service users or politicians . A series of reviews of supermarkets by the Competition Commission — three in the past eight years — failed to conclude anything other than that the companies are acting fairly.
Ofcom, the communications-sector regulator , is also seen as relatively ineffectual, doing little to tackle consumer problems with broadband companies or to break Sky’s powerful grip on the pay-television sector. llan Asher, chief executive of the onsumer group energywatch, said
watchdogs had become obsessed ith a “better regulation” agenda that emphasised less intervention rather than more. “This is good procedure but a poor goal and it led to Ofgem
voluntarily reducing its own budget and taking its eye off the market .
“It was only a few weeks ago that Ofgem was persuading the government that the markets were
beyond reproach but since then it has initiated a range of actions in the face of price rises and market abuses.”
The one ray of hope has come from the Financial Services Authority, which cracked down on rogue selling and other abuses under “treating customers carefully” provisions. The
recent admission that it mishandled the Northern Rock crisis has left many feeling the next inquiry should be into the regulators themselves.'

Think about the role of the regulator. Do the examples suggest that they are as effective as they should be? Is there evidence of 'regulatory capture'?

Friday 4 April 2008

Food prices drive India inflation

Inflation in India has hit a three-year high as a result of spiralling food and energy costs, official figures show. India's wholesale price index, released weekly, hit 7% for the year up to 22 March, the highest since December 2004. The government has been taking steps to control prices, banning exports of non-basmati rice and scrapping import duties on cooking oils and maize.
Economists said the data could trigger a rise in interest rates this month, earlier than many had expected. India's Economic Times says the government is considering a price ceiling on commodities if all other measures fail to bring down inflation - a law last used in the 1970s.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7330045.stm

Try to evaluate the methods being used by the Indian government in an attenpt to curb the rise in food prices.

Thursday 3 April 2008

Agflation

Agflation: The real costs of rising food prices. Farmers can't keep up with rising demand. The world is in a food crisis that's already boiled over in some places. A really good overview of the situation from Reuters. Look at the world map to locate the crisis points then explore the policy responses. What effects will these have in the countries concerned and in the rest of the world?
http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/agflation

UK House Prices


Interesting video clip on the possible movement of UK house prices from John Authers of the Financial Times. Take careful note of the two charts he uses to illustrate his views.
http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-11dc-b971-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=700438104&fromSearch=n

Wednesday 2 April 2008

India introduces rice export ban

The Indian government has banned the export of non-basmati rice to try and control soaring domestic food costs. The decision, one of a series of measures to curb inflation, was taken during an emergency cabinet meeting. Traders say rice prices rose by 10% last year,

The price for exports of aromatic basmati rice has also been raised to $1,200 per tonne to discourage exports. The move could have an impact on rice prices globally as the country is the third largest exporter of the grain - a staple food in many countries.

Also, a good article and video from the BBC News site on the global rise of food prices.