Money, money, money!

The Bank of England on Thursday announced unprecedented steps to prevent the deepest slump since the 1930s when it unveiled plans to inject up to £75bn into the economy over the next three months.Alarmed by signs that Britain's malfunctioning banking system is starving consumers and businesses of credit, Alistair Darling gave Threadneedle Street clearance to begin creating money – the last-gasp measure used by Japan to end a decade of recession and deflation.The Bank said it would embark on quantitative easing next week, after its monetary policy committee cut the bank rate for the sixth time since the global financial system came close to collapse last Oct­ober. The rate is now 0.5% – a level not seen before in the Bank's 315-year history.
Mervyn King, the Bank's governor, said it was unlikely that bank rate could go any lower and policymakers would shift focus to creating money instead. "We are very close to zero. What we are doing now is switching to injecting money into the economy directly."

Link to The Guardian

Bank creates cash: 'This is the last roll of the dice - an unconventional weapon'

Larry Elliott on quantitative easing - printing money - Audio link

Is the decision to print money right? The experts think so. But ... Link

UK now 'in deep recession' - economy will shrink by 4% this year

Further confirmation (if any was needed) of the worsening of the UK's economic position. The governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, has warned that the UK is "in a deep recession" in 2009 and said rate cuts may no longer work and hinted thta 'unconventional' measure may have to be used. In its latest forecast for economic growth and inflation, the Bank says that the UK economy will decline sharply in the first half of the year. And it says that there is a significant risk that the recession will be even longer and deeper than expected. The Bank forecasts the economy will shrink by 4% from mid-2008 to mid-2009.

Link to BBC News

What do you think Mervyn King meant by 'unconventional' measures?

The end of monetary policy as we know it?

Three former members of the Bank of England's rate-setting committee have urged the central bank to rethink its monetary policy. Dr Deanne Julius, Sushil Wadhwani and Willem Buiter are all part of a new monetary policy forum, set up by Fathom Financial Consulting. The forum is designed to scrutinise the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The former MPC members are now urging the Bank to consider the use of quantitative easing - creating money to buy assets - as a tool for ensuring economic stability. Dr DeAnne Julius told the BBC: "We are clearly at the end of monetary policy as we know it." Link to BBC News

For explanation of Quantitative Easing see earlier blog.

What is Quantitative Easing?

If you have heard the term 'Quantitative Easing' but are unsure what it means then the graphic in today's FT should help. As interest rates reach their lower limit with doubt about the effectiveness of rate cuts, the Bank of England is looking for other measures to stimulate spending in the economy; 'Quantitative Easing' is such a measure. Link

As predicted ... interest rate cut to 'historic 1%

The Bank of England has reduced interest rates to a record low of 1% from 1.5% in an attempt to boost the shrinking economy. This marks the fifth interest rate cut since October, as the Bank seeks to encourage more lending. However, there are concerns that savers will be hurt by lower interest rates. And business groups argue that this rate reduction will not be enough to ease the economic crisis, and will not encourage banks to lend. (See the concerns of the NIESR in yesterday's blog). Link to BBC News

Geoff Riley provides a good summary of the decision and a comprehensive chart-based student handout. Link

End of rate cuts?

As the Monetary Policy Committee begins its monthly meeting, an influential think-tank has said there was "not very much point" to the last cut. Martin Weale of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said that other measures such as the Bank buying corporate bonds would be better. It is not the cost of credit that is deterring borrowers but that credit is not available. The think tank warned that the contraction of credit meant that rate cuts by the Bank of England were now ineffective in stemming the downturn. The NIESR predicted the UK economy would shrink by 2.7% in 2009, its worst performance for 60 years. Link to BBC News

With regard to the lack of available credit, see the video posted on the tutor2u blog. It concerns Leyland Daf trucks, explaining that whilst demand for vehicles is high, many smaller companies cannot get loans in order to puchase trucks whose price is around £100,000. It shows how this affects company production and employment, and its knock-on effects to suppliers and the local/national economy. Link

As the Monetary Policy Committee meets, the Bank of England announced that it has lent £185bn to financial institutions since April under its special liquidity scheme (SLS), set up to allow banks to temporarily swap assets that were difficult to trade, such as mortgage-backed debt, for UK Treasury Bills. It was designed to help encourage banks to resume normal lending practices by reducing the uncertainty that having illiquid assets on balance sheets was creating. Link to BBC News

Fiscal policy - economists embrace public investment

Two interesting article in the New York Times explaining the renewed enthusiasm for fiscal policy to tackle the recession in the USA. Mainstream economists are embracing public spending to repair the damage caused by the recession and credit crisis - even those who have long resisted a significant government role in a market system. There seems to be agreement that direct government investment will be more effective than tax cuts in stimulating the economy. The lowering of interest rates isn't likely to have the desired effect due to the unwillingness of people to borrow ' panicked by investment losses or fearful for their jobs'.

Links:

A Trap in a Spending Plan for an Economy That's in Full Retreat.

A New Enthusiasm for a Fiscal Stimulus

'Too low inflation' warning

Speaking to the Treasury Select Committee about inflation, Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, warned that the risk it could fall below 2% in the medium term has "increased significantly" in recent weeks. He said this was due to the sharp fall in global oil and commodity prices, and declining consumer demand. UK inflation fell to 4.5% from 5.2% in October. The government wants inflation to be as close as possible to 2%. and Bank of England targets the Consumer Price Index, which excludes the effects of mortgage interest payments. "We will take whatever action is necessary to ensure that inflation is close to target in the medium term," Mr King said.
UK interest rates are currently at 3% following a 1.5 percentage point cut at the start of this month, and many economists are forecasting a further cut in interest rates in December. He added that the government's cut in VAT will also help lowe the rate of inflation.

Is there an ideal rate of inflation?

Why is the target set at 2%?

What are the dangers of falling prices?

What is the difference between deflation and disinflation?

Haven't we got the message yet?

The Bank of England governor and an influential think tank have predicted that the UK economy is likely to sink into recession in 2009. Mervyn King told business leaders in Leeds he was concerned about rising unemployment and falling house prices. Economic fears sent the pound plunging to a five-year low against the dollar. Meanwhile, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research says the UK is on the brink of its first full year of recession since 1991. The Bank of England has also been criticised for being too slow to cut interest rates in response to the UK's worsening economic situation.

Link to BBC News - includes a short video clip of Mervyn King's statement.

Also, see the set of charts that Geoff Riley has put together on tutor2u blog entitled 'In the Long Run'. Think about the impact of short run fluctuations against long run trends. (Link)

Economy slowing down ... or is it?

The Bank of England had warned the UK was heading for difficult times and it would act to rein in inflation. The Bank of England's governor, Mervyn King, said the UK was facing its "most difficult economic challenge for two decades". (View video of speech) The following day a record level of retail spending in May provided a respite from gloomy economic predictions, but it also fanned fears of higher interest rates. Sales rose by 3.5% during May, the strongest monthly growth since January 1986, statistical office figures show. Shocked analysts said the figures ran contrary to signs of a slowing economy and weak consumer confidence. (Details here)

Mervyn King made it clear that inflation was set to rise whilst house prices would fall. He said the MPC was "prepared to take whatever action is needed" to bring inflation back down to the government's 2% target. The latest inflation figures showed that the rate of consumer price growth had accelerated to 3.3% in May. However, Mr King added that monetary policy alone could not prevent the current effects of rising food and energy prices on living standards. People would have to accept that their pay rises would have to be limited which would affect real take home pay and make life difficult for some.

Do interest rate cuts work?

The MPC duly announced the much anticipated cut in base interest rates, though the 0.25% cut was much less than recent cuts by the US Federal Reserve. There is a good piece by Geoff Riley on the tutor2u website explaining the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, in particular the effects of interest rate changes. In addition, the comments in response to the article are worth reading.

http://www.tutor2u.net/blog/index.php/economics/comments/interest-rate-cuts-do-work/#extended

Australia raises interest rates

Whilst interest rates in the USA have been slashed and pressure grows for cuts in the UK, Australia has raised interest rates to an 11-year high of 7%, as part of efforts to control rising inflation. Australia's resource-rich economy has continued to expand due to a sustained rally in commodity prices. The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised the cost of borrowing 11 times since 2002. "Having both the international and domestic information available, the board concluded that a tighter monetary policy stance was needed now," said Glenn Stevens, the bank's governor. Inflation is running at an annual rate of 3.6%, above the bank's comfort zone of 2% to 3%.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7228153.stm