Signs that weaker pound is having an impact

The following two items suggest that the falling value of the pound is starting to have an impact on exports and imports. The Guardian reports that there has been a big jump in exports on the back of the weaker pound which has triggered a sharp drop in Britain's trade deficit with countries outside the European Union, while there are signs that cost pressures in industry are easing, suggesting some relief for hard-pressed manufacturers. Exports soared by 12.8% while imports dropped 5.4%. The overall trade in goods deficit shrank to £7.3bn from £7.8bn. Link to article.

BBC news reports that many tourist attractions in the UK have seen an increase in visitors over the Easter period, both from within the UK and from abroad. Link to video

Will a weaker pound always have a positive impact on the trade deficit? What factors will determine whether the UK benefits or not?

Food price rises 'hit UK harder'

The UK is "more exposed" to rising food price rises than its peers, adding to recessionary fears, according to a report by Ernst & Young. Its Item Club says "the implications for business are profound" - making it more likely firms will raise prices. Unlike the US which has a balance of food and France which has a surplus, the UK has a trade deficit in food. The Item Club report says that as food prices keep rising, this reduces the chance of an interest rate cut in the UK. "The danger now is that rising food world prices and energy prices will lead to excessively tight monetary policy", it says, as the government seeks to counter the rise by "squeezing domestic costs". As food and energy prices contribute 1.7% to Consumer Prices Index Inflation - which recently reached 3% - this leaves "little room" for price rises elsewhere. Input costs have risen by nearly a quarter in the 12 months to April, eating into consumers' disposable incomes. Link to article.

The government's 2% inflation target will require a 1.5 percentage-point premium on interest rates because of spiralling food and energy prices. This will lead to sharply lower growth and rising unemployment, as many as 60,000 jobs lost, according to the Item club report, which uses the Treasury model to forecast the economy. It urged the chancellor, Alistair Darling, to exclude food and energy from the inflation target or risk excessive pain for voters in the run-up to the election. Read the Guardian article.