News of recession dominates

Numerous articles in The Observer today about UK economic prospects ... namely that the recession is upon us. The Ernst and Young Item Club will warn this week that we are in the grip of a severe economic slowdown at the same time as GDP figures are widely expected to confirm that a recession is already underway. Item expects GDP to decline outright next year by 1% - the first full year of decline since 1991. It predicts a gradual recovery in 2010, with the economy recording growth of just 1%. Consumer spending would be hard hit over the next two years, as households try to rebuild their finances in the face of sickly income growth and plunging property prices. Link to Ernst and Young There isa good report of the forecast on the BBC News site. Link

There is an interesting view of the likely impact of the recession and the suggestion that it will be nothing like the one that gripped Britain in the early Eighties. It will hit people in different industries - finance and leisure, not manufacturing. And London, not the North, will bear the brunt. Link: It's grim down South

Will Hutton highlights that aspect of a recession that has the most impact on individuals - unemployment. 'Over the good years unemployment came to be characterised as a matter of choice; there was work out there if you wanted it or could be bothered to get out of bed. It has been a controversial argument; worklessness has always been part of a vicious circle of self-reinforcing lack of self-worth and poverty of opportunity, tending to be clustered in areas of deprivation. It is rarely if ever a matter of choice. People want to work. Human beings want to realise our potential and dreams. Work provides sustenance, meaning and structure to our lives. It is where we meet the bulk of our friends and partners. In a recession the argument that the unemployed are unemployed by choice will not wash. To stand idly by is to condemn our fellow citizens to poverty, futility and meaninglessness.' It is the young (school and college leavers, new recruits) who have yet to show their usefulness and to acquire new skills who are affected first. He goes on to outline measures which should be taken to inject spending power into the economy, the quickest and most effective, ironically, by putting cash into the hands of the unemployed. Raising unemployment benefits and increasing cash payments should be a priority - it is not just that need the cash but that they spend it the fastest. The next most effective measure is to increase spending on the national infrastructure. Link to article

See Geoff Riley's excellent blog (Could the UK budget deficit reach £100bn?) for an overview of current government borrowing and the National Debt.